Advexsystem - Mathematical Market Forecasting

For about twenty years, the company has specialized in developing mathematics-based systems and methods for trading in the forex market. The company particularly focuses on forecast accuracy.

Two major trading systems were built during that period: The Price Targets Forecasting System (PTF) and the Turning Points Identification System (TPI). Despite their functional differences, the trading systems share one common feature: The same mathematical basis—namely, a mathematical analysis of the market turning points. The concept is that the market turning points are related by mathematical principles, and that there is no single market top or bottom that cannot be explained by those principles.

It was proved that by analyzing historical extremes according to specific methods, one can accurately calculate future turning points and thus predict future price targets. That task was put into practice with the PTF system after several years of research. Also, the use of mathematical analysis helps to determine whether the current price is a pivot point, and thus to identify price reversals in a real-time mode. The latter task was accomplished with the TPI system.

PTF System

Years of Development 1997-2004
Full Name Price Targets Forecasting System
System Algorithm Mathematical Analysis of Market Turning Points
Markets / Applicability All: Forex, Stocks, Commodities, Indices
System Features An accurate calculation of  a price target's linear dynamics over time
Types of Signals Generated STF - Short-Term (Forex) Forecast
FFT - Forex Forecast for Tomorrow
WTS - Weekly Trading Signals
Signals Presentation The trading forecast generated by the system displays its values graphically as lines and results in sloping rays extended into the future.
Day Trend Prediction

TPI System

Years of Development 2011-2012
Full Name Turning Points Identification System
System Algorithm Mathematical Analysis of Market Turning Points
Markets / Applicability Forex
System Features The system can identify the pivots in a real time mode and thus determine a price trend  for the near future
Types of Signals Generated DTF - Daily Forex Trend Forecast
WTF - Weekly Forex Trend Forecast
Signals Presentation UP or DOWN words
Day Trend Prediction

Accurate Prediction of Market Prices

A dream of every investor or trader is to know with certainty the future price of a tradeable asset in the short or medium term. Is it possible to make that dream a reality?

Most “experts” claim that such a dream is impracticable, because it is impossible to predict future price. They’ll repeat some mantra about the unpredictability of supply and demand, or offer up something like this: “If people were able to predict the price of anything, they would be billionaires and very well known by now.”

Unlike theorists of market forecasting, our approach is based on the following two axioms:

1. The future is predictable.
2. Present and future price movement is solely based on past price. Since the historical prices contain all the fullness of the source data, the forecast of future prices is replaced with the plain calculation.

We use the term "forecast" only insofar as the result of certain mathematical operations relates to the future. Our method has nothing in common with classical methods of forecasting.

The main objective was to develop a system that can generate price targets achieved by prices with 100% probability—for any other percentage makes trading senseless. The task seemed to be absolutely impossible with regard to forecasting time and price (separate price target point), while it became quite realizable with regard to computing a price target's linear dynamics over time. The trading forecast generated by the system displays its values graphically as lines and results in sloping rays extended into the future.

Many years of practice confirmed that the calculation algorithm turned out to be correct, and the price reached exactly the price target line (forming new isolated highs or lows).

But 100% probability could still not be claimed, since the system sometimes failed—the price did not fully reach the predicted price target lines, the realization of the forecast was delayed for a fairly long time, and so forth. To find the mathematical groundings for such cases, another system analyzing the current price and recognizing the price turning points in real time was developed. Now, one can state that the price target line is guaranteed to be reached by the price, given that no new extremum occurs on the price’s way to the target. In rare cases it is possible to predict an absence of new turning points on the price’s way to the target and thus to have a 100% probability—or sure-fire trade.

1. Prices can be predicted with high accuracy.
2. The time factor cannot be present in the calculations, since it is practically impossible to predict that at a certain time the price of X will be Y.
3. Time of forecast fulfillment depends on the time period of the analyzed price chart and can be indicated only approximately by analogy with previous cases.

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