A dream of every investor or trader is to know with certainty the future price of a tradeable asset in the short or medium term. Is it possible to make that dream a reality?
Most “experts” claim that such a dream is impracticable, because it is impossible to predict future price. They’ll repeat some mantra about the unpredictability of supply and demand, or offer up something like this: “If people were able to predict the price of anything, they would be billionaires and very well known by now.”
Unlike theorists of market forecasting, our approach is based on the following two axioms:
1. The future is predictable.
2. Present and future price movement is solely based on past price. Since the historical prices contain all the fullness of the source data, the forecast of future prices is replaced with the plain calculation.
We use the term "forecast" only insofar as the result of certain mathematical operations relates to the future. Our method has nothing in common with classical methods of forecasting.
The main objective was to develop a system that can generate price targets achieved by prices with 100% probability—for any other percentage makes trading senseless. The task seemed to be absolutely impossible with regard to forecasting time and price (separate price target point), while it became quite realizable with regard to computing a price target's linear dynamics over time. The trading forecast generated by the system displays its values graphically as lines and results in sloping rays extended into the future.
Many years of practice confirmed that the calculation algorithm turned out to be correct, and the price reached exactly the price target line (forming new isolated highs or lows).
But 100% probability could still not be claimed, since the system sometimes failed—the price did not fully reach the predicted price target lines, the realization of the forecast was delayed for a fairly long time, and so forth. To find the mathematical groundings for such cases, another system analyzing the current price and recognizing the price turning points in real time was developed. Now, one can state that the price target line is guaranteed to be reached by the price, given that no new extremum occurs on the price’s way to the target. In rare cases it is possible to predict an absence of new turning points on the price’s way to the target and thus to have a 100% probability—or sure-fire trade.
1. Prices can be predicted with high accuracy.
2. The time factor cannot be present in the calculations, since it is practically impossible to predict that at a certain time the price of X will be Y.
3. Time of forecast fulfillment depends on the time period of the analyzed price chart and can be indicated only approximately by analogy with previous cases.